Long-term modeled projections of the energy sector : an incremental approach to narrowing down the uncertainty range

• 作者： Kononov, Yuri D., author.
• 其他作者：
  • SpringerLink (Online service)
• 其他題名：
  • Springer geophysics.
• 出版： Cham : Springer International Publishing :Imprint: Springer
• 叢書名： Springer geophysics,
• 主題： Energy industries--Forecasting. , Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences. , Energy Policy, Economics and Management. , Energy Systems. , Natural Resource and Energy Economics.
• ISBN： 9783030305338 (electronic bk.) 、 9783030305321 (paper)
• FIND@SFXID: CGU
• 資料類型: 電子書
• 內容註: The effects of the forecasting time frame on forecast performance and forecast performance requirements -- Further development of the long-term forecasting methodology for the energy sector -- Methods of projecting price and demand for energy commodities -- Assessment and factoring in of conditions and barriers that limit the projection range of the prospective development of the engery sector -- Quantitative assessment of strategic threats and energy security indicatiors.
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• 摘要註: This book covers available approaches to improving the performance and impact of long-term projections of the national energy sector development. In turn, it introduces an original multi-stage approach to narrowing down the uncertainty range of the input data and resulting projections. Its unique contribution is that it limits the scope for each of the projection timeframe segments step-by-step. This is done in the course of iterative calculations, which employ dedicated methods and other tools to elucidate and solve top-priority problems specific to each time segment. In closing, the book provides a detailed treatment of two essential research problems: 1) long-term forecasting for regional energy markets, and 2) the quantitative assessment of a) the barriers that are likely to hinder energy sector development and b) strategic-level energy security threats.
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